- The Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, most likely by Israel, which has caused concerns about the group’s future tactics. Based in Gaza since his 2011 release from an Israeli jail, Sinwar has played a pivotal role in Hamas’s conflict with Israel and relations with other Palestinian factions. Being a hardliner, he could be less willing to make concessions to the Israelis.
- various Hamas members address problems in various ways, demonstrating that the group is not a monolith. While Sinwar is seen as a hardliner, Haniyeh was recognized for his moderation and pragmatism. He is likely to be less willing to make concessions to the Israelis in his capacity as the new leader of Hamas.
- Prior to Haniyeh’s murder, Sinwar was heavily involved in Hamas’s discussions with Israel. Nonetheless, some analysts predict that Hamas would likely adopt more maximalist attitudes in this conflict if Haniyeh isn’t there to counterbalance Sinwar’s strict policies.
- The Middle East Institute’s Khaled Elgindy, who oversees the Palestine program in Washington, anticipates that Sinwar will take a combative position, and that Hamas will become more rigid in its decision-making. Without a doubt, it will be more difficult to bring about a truce, and Sinwar’s appointment is also a defiant move intended to give Israel the impression that Hamas is not only still alive but ready to fight.
- It is unclear if Sinwar would take a different tack than his predecessor when it comes to crucial unification negotiations with other Palestinian factions, particularly those involving Hamas and Fatah. A reconciliation statement that Hamas, Fatah, and twelve other Palestinian organizations signed in Beijing eight days before to Haniyeh’s murder in the Iranian capital committed them to “ending division and strengthening Palestinian unity.” According to some analysts, Hamas’s calculations about reconciliation negotiations with Fatah and other Palestinian groups won’t necessarily alter as a result of Sinwar’s promotion.
- High-ranking Hamas officials have also disagreed throughout the years on the group’s relationship with foreign countries. For example, Hamas officials were unable to agree on how to approach President Bashar al-Assad’s administration after the Arab Spring revolt broke out in Syria in 2011. While Doha-based Khaled Meshaal believed in removing the Palestinian organization from the Iranian-led “axis of resistance” and bringing it closer to Turkey, Qatar, and, to some extent, Saudi Arabia, Sinwar has long supported keeping Hamas’s ties with Iran, Syria, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
- After ten months of Israel’s assault on Gaza, Sinwar will be an advocate for improving ties between Hamas and almost every international body or country that is prepared to support the Palestinian group in any capacity. He feels that pragmatic concerns and interests, not ideological ones, should guide choices regarding Hamas’s international connections.
- It is probably true that it will be more difficult to envisage Hamas consenting to shift its political leadership outside of Qatar, given that Israel was the one who carried out this killing in Iran. Now that it has a permanent head in Gaza, Hamas will be less receptive to such threats. The United States and Israel have been pressuring Doha to threaten to expulse Hamas officials who are located in Qatar.
- After ten months of Israel’s assault on Gaza, Sinwar will be an advocate for improving ties between Hamas and almost every international body or country that is prepared to support the Palestinian group in any capacity. He feels that pragmatic concerns and interests, not ideological ones, should guide choices regarding Hamas’s international connections.
- It is probably true that it will be more difficult to envisage Hamas consenting to shift its political leadership outside of Qatar, given that Israel was the one who carried out this killing in Iran. Now that it has a permanent head in Gaza, Hamas will be less receptive to such threats. The United States and Israel have been pressuring Doha to threaten to expulse Hamas officials who are located in Qatar.
Source:
Responsible Statecraft